Opinion: A Reform shaped bollard rolling into County Hall – but Preston doesn’t follow the tune

A buoyant Lib Dem group celebrate winning two seats in the city during the county elections Pic: Blog Preston

Preston’s general election trends played out ten months down the line – with the city not quite humming the same tune as the county-wide storyline.

This is not surprising, Preston’s politics has been multi-party for a long time now. And single-issue politics and the strength of a single candidate remains a powerful political weapon in the city.

Lib Dems continue their in-roads from city council elections in leafier parts, a strong pro-Gaza Independent faction dominates city centre areas, Labour remain a large but increasingly mis-firing machine and the Conservatives are becoming an even rarer breed than 12 months ago.

And then there’s Reform, finishing third in the general election with a relatively modest campaign – this time it was rocket fuelled. And they have their first political strongholds in the city – winning Preston Rural and Preston East. It wasn’t the light blue wipe-out seen in other places in Lancashire though, see South Ribble nearly going full Reform for county council representatives.

Many of the Preston seats in this Lancashire County Council local election turned into genuine three-way contests and with some slim majorities.

Watch Preston Labour leader Matthew Brown’s thoughts below or on YouTube

Preston has a democratic problem though – the lowest voter turnout of anywhere in Lancashire. Just 28.3% of people voted. In Preston Central West, where city council leader Matthew Brown held for Labour (one of only five county councillors they now have, down from 32), turnout didn’t even reach 20%. And this is likely what will have limited Reform’s victories in the city – as it was on the day voting where they decimated the opposition.

Both Tories and Labour saw their county councillor ranks hammered. While the Lib Dems, with less than half of the established parties total votes picked up five seats and the Greens four. Tactical effort – combined with grassroots nous – from the smaller parties continues to pay off for them.

We spoke to the Lib Dems about the county election results, watch below or see on YouTube

And the Independents factor was a major card in Preston – with Michael Lavalette, Yousuf Motala and Almas Razakazi winning in the city-focused seats of Preston Central East, Preston City and Preston South East. Lavalette was second in the general election – cutting Labour’s majority. Those votes remain with he and his supporters and have translated the anger over a global topic to an X at the ballot box in a local election.

Does all this matter? For Preston – not directly – as Lancashire County Council is a construct to operate across the majority of the county. But for those in Town and County Halls, or with designs on power, Reform has shown they can mobilise a large amount of people behind an idea. In a relatively short space of time.

Watch the likely leader of Reform Lancashire and the county council Stephen Atkinson react below or on YouTube

There’s echoes of the build-up to the 2016 Brexit referendum here, drum-beat politics, light on detail but capturing a frustration with the status quo. UKIP were surging in that 2014 onwards period, and now Reform are in the same mould – but there’s not a referendum to build towards. But a future general election. And Reform have broken through in the city winning seats in a way that UKIP never did (despite coming close).

If the old guard are chilled now at the prospect of Reform being responsible for a £1.2billion organisation like the county council, then those who scoffed and dismissed will be eating their words as Stephen Atkinson and co hold the power cards.

Watch below or on YouTube as we tried to find out what Reform have planned once in County Hall

But politics can change quickly, this time last year you’d have put a good chunk of change on Matthew Tomlinson – the Lancashire Labour leader – and his team steaming up Fishergate into County Hall. Instead they are carrying on past, like the Fishergate bollard, and many established figures like Tomlinson are unseated. Don’t let the door hit you on the way out, is the verdict from voters – before Labour had even got their foot back in the door.

As for the Conservatives? There were sad faces this time 12-months ago. I’m not sure if it’s possible for them to get any sadder. Mutterings, discontent, fatigue, beige. There’s about as much fight in them as PNE (the Bristol City draw not withstanding).

The difficulty for Preston is the disconnect between Town and County Halls is likely to intensify. This holds back the city in many ways – often unseen. There were political differences between Conservative and Labour administrations, it’ll be lighting the blue touch paper to say Reform and Labour won’t see eye-to-eye based on the spit-spats on the campaigning trail and especially given the fingers and thumbs controlling the social media of both parties. Expect fireworks – and not just when Embrace play it on the Flag Market tonight for the Weekender.

So we’ll sit and wait, with Preston and Lancashire having much talk of potential, and see whether change does roll around in the 12 months to come although how people vote when it’s Plungington, Ashton, Ribbleton and Sharoe Green as opposed to bureaucratic constructs like ‘Preston South West’ tends to be a little different as it’s the badge on your bin. It means more. But then the ballot box will have its say again – when city council elections take place – if indeed we even have a city council by then as the spectre of three, or four, of five, super-councils for Lancashire continues to sit large on the horizon.

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